Analysis of Factors Influencing the Price of Beijing Carbon Emission Allowance Based on the VAR Model
Abstract
Effectively constructing a carbon emission trading Market is crucial for China to achieve its goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, carbon emission allowance prices are influenced by various factors. This paper employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, using the average transaction price of Beijing Carbon Emission Allowances (BEA) as the research subject. It analyzes related indicators from four aspects: energy prices, macroeconomic conditions, environmental factors, and public sentiment. The results show that among energy price factors, coal and oil prices have a positive impact on BEA prices, while natural gas has a negative impact. Macroeconomic factors initially have a negative impact, followed by fluctuating recovery. Environmental factors, such as the Air Quality Index (AQI) and maximum temperature, initially have a positive impact on BEA prices, followed by fluctuating recovery, while the minimum temperature has the opposite effect. Public sentiment has a significant negative impact on BEA price fluctuations. The empirical results of this study can help investors better understand the changes in the prices of carbon emission allowance, provide references for policymakers, and offer foundations for constructing a national carbon emission trading market that reflects comprehensive and accurate information.
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