Journal of Economics and Management Sciences

China's Economic Growth from a Comprehensive Analysis Perspective: A Synergistic Application of GRA, PCA, and GRU Models

Min Juanhua — 2025-01-06

In the context of globalization and economic integration, accurately predicting China's quarterly GDP growth rate is crucial for macroeconomic decision-making. This paper proposes a comprehensive forecasting framework that combines Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)-based neural network model to improve prediction accuracy. The study first identifies economic indicators highly correlated with GDP growth through GRA. It then extracts key variability from multidimensional data using PCA, constructing a "China Macroeconomic Vitality Index." Simultaneously, a GRU model, combined with error correction and Bayesian optimization techniques, significantly enhances prediction accuracy. The results demonstrate that the optimized GRU model exhibits significant reductions in evaluation metrics such as SMAPE, MAE, and MSE, indicating good forecasting performance. Additionally, SHAP value analysis reveals the specific impact of each economic indicator on GDP growth, providing a basis for macroeconomic decisions.

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Digital Transformation on Enterprise Innovation and Development

Li Lingyu — 2025-01-14

Based on the data of Chinese listed companies from 2007 to 2022, this article deeply analyzes the catalytic effect of digital transformation on enterprise innovation and development. Research has found that digital transformation significantly promotes the improvement of enterprise innovation capabilities, and exhibits heterogeneity among different types of enterprises. After sufficient robustness testing, this conclusion still holds true; When financing constraints are high, the promotion effect of digital transformation on enterprise innovation is stronger, that is, digital transformation can effectively alleviate the financing constraints of enterprises and empower enterprise innovation; The level of human capital can positively regulate the promoting effect of digital transformation on the high-quality development of enterprises. This study not only enriches the theoretical framework of the relationship between digital transformation and enterprise innovation development, but also provides useful references and inspirations for enterprises to implement digital transformation and enhance innovation capabilities.

Research on the Efficiency of Human-Machine Collaborative Delivery Management for Takeout Riders Under Algorithmic Control

Dongyi Hu — 2025-01-17

In the current digital economy era, the takeout industry is expanding, which makes human-machine collaborative delivery management between takeout riders and intelligent algorithms increasingly important. Based on this, this paper takes takeout riders as Decision Making Units to study the management efficiency of the delivery algorithm from the perspective of input and output. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation index system for input and output is constructed. Secondly, the entropy method is used to obtain the weights of the delivery input indicators at all levels and the comprehensive input index. Then, the output-oriented DEA-BCC model is established by combining the comprehensive input index and several delivery output indicators. Finally, the efficiency of the delivery algorithm in managing takeout riders is evaluated using the results calculated from the DEA-BCC model. Additionally, this paper also proposes suggestions for personalized human-machine collaborative delivery management in terms of quantity, quality and safety based on the slack variables of the output indicators.

Research on Domestic Product Oil Marketing Strategy of China National Petroleum Corporation

Chen Yimeng — 2025-01-23

With the rapid development of China's economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for refined oil products market continues to grow, and PetroChina, as a leading enterprise in the domestic energy industry, is facing great opportunities and challenges. In recent years, PetroChina has been actively laying out its business in the domestic refined oil products market, continuously optimizing its marketing network and improving its service level, in an effort to gain an advantage in the fierce market competition. However, due to the complexity and changeability of the external environment and the limited internal resources, PetroChina still has many problems in marketing. Through a comprehensive analysis of PetroChina's marketing environment for refined oil products, this paper combines the SWOT analysis method to explore its strategic choices and suggestions for improvement in the domestic marketing of refined oil products. Through these studies, it is hoped that it can provide useful references for PetroChina in its future development, and help it better cope with market changes and realize sustainable development.

LMDI and STIRPAT Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region: An Industrial Advancement Perspective

Zhang Qiannian — 2025-02-08

This study investigates the driving factors of carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, a key economic region in western China, using the LMDI decomposition method and the STIRPAT model. The results reveal that energy structure optimization and energy consumption intensity reduction are the primary drivers of carbon emission reductions, highlighting the importance of clean energy adoption and improvements in energy efficiency. In contrast, economic growth and secondary industry expansion are the dominant contributors to carbon emission increases, reflecting the energy-intensive nature of industrial activities and the strong coupling between economic development and energy consumption. The tertiary industry exhibits a dual role, with its expansion reducing emissions in regions with higher levels of green transformation but increasing emissions in areas dominated by traditional service sectors. Industrial advancement (or industrial structural upgrading) emerges as a critical strategy for mitigating emissions, while population size has a relatively small direct impact, though urbanization amplifies emissions in high-density areas.

This study contributes methodologically by integrating the LMDI and STIRPAT approaches, providing a robust framework for analyzing carbon emission drivers. Empirically, it highlights significant regional heterogeneity in emission drivers across counties and districts, offering valuable insights for targeted low-carbon development strategies. The findings underscore the need to accelerate clean energy adoption, enhance energy efficiency, promote green industrial transformation, and optimize urbanization patterns. These results provide a scientific basis for formulating policies to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.

China Telecom 5G Analysis On The Path To Improve User Quality Satisfaction

Yanfang Liu — 2025-02-08

With the rapid development of 5G technology, the telecommunications industry faces significant opportunities and challenges. Key factors such as user expectations, quality perception, value perception, and user satisfaction influence the competitiveness and market share of telecom companies. This paper, based on user behavior theory, examines the relationships between these factors and their impact on user loyalty. The findings provide theoretical and practical guidance for telecom marketing strategies in the 5G era, helping companies understand user needs, improve service quality, and enhance loyalty, ultimately promoting long-term growth.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Price of Beijing Carbon Emission Allowance Based on the VAR Model

Xin Li — 2025-02-17

Effectively constructing a carbon emission trading Market is crucial for China to achieve its goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, carbon emission allowance prices are influenced by various factors. This paper employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, using the average transaction price of Beijing Carbon Emission Allowances (BEA) as the research subject. It analyzes related indicators from four aspects: energy prices, macroeconomic conditions, environmental factors, and public sentiment. The results show that among energy price factors, coal and oil prices have a positive impact on BEA prices, while natural gas has a negative impact. Macroeconomic factors initially have a negative impact, followed by fluctuating recovery. Environmental factors, such as the Air Quality Index (AQI) and maximum temperature, initially have a positive impact on BEA prices, followed by fluctuating recovery, while the minimum temperature has the opposite effect. Public sentiment has a significant negative impact on BEA price fluctuations. The empirical results of this study can help investors better understand the changes in the prices of carbon emission allowance, provide references for policymakers, and offer foundations for constructing a national carbon emission trading market that reflects comprehensive and accurate information.

The Integrated Framework and Future Prospects of Consumer Well-Being Research——Based on TCCM Framework and ADO Framework

Tan Biao — 2025-02-18

In recent years, transformative consumer research ( TCR ) has advocated the shift of consumer behavior to truly serve consumers, making the application value of consumer well-being increasingly reflected, which has become the frontier and focus of theoretical and practical exploration. By integrating the TCCM framework and ADO framework, this paper systematically reviews the related research on consumer well-being, constructs an integrated framework of consumer well-being research from the aspects of antecedents-decision mechanism-result-theory-situation-method, summarizes and analyzes the related constructs, antecedents and effects, influence mechanism, theoretical basis, research methods and research scenarios of consumer well-being in the existing research, and deeply analyzes the internal mechanism of consumer well-being. On this basis, this paper combines relevant theories to refine and identify the future research prospects of consumer well-being, in order to provide useful reference for the theoretical exploration and practice of consumer well-being.

Financial Dilemma and Countermeasures for Small and Micro Enterprises in the Establishment Period: A Case Study Based on a Certain Region

Feihua Lv — 2025-02-21

Both small micro enterprise financing difficulties research focus on small micro enterprises, financial technology, financing constraints, financing difficulties, etc., and this paper for the start-up period of small micro enterprise, combing the literature research status, on the basis of select representative samples: two initial small micro enterprise, research, the initial concept, and summarize and highly refined, form an open coding, spindle coding, finally form the dynamic perspective of small micro enterprise financing difficulties. According to the dynamic perspective of small micro enterprise financing dilemma analysis further analyze the particularity of the financing difficulties and related characteristics, the dilemma causes three aspects: initial small micro enterprise factors, financial supply system is not perfect, high investment growth model (existing research mostly ignored the important factors), and put forward the initial small micro enterprise own development, improve the financial supply system, transformation of economic growth pattern three levels of advice and strategy. Finally, I hope to provide some enlightenment for solving the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises in the initial stage.