Energy and Economic Development in Nigeria: An Econometric Approach based on Fractional Integration
Keywords:
energy, economic development, long-range dependence, fractional differentiation, fractional cointegration
Abstract
The relationship between economic development and energy in Nigeria is examined in this work. An econometric model is developed to ccount for the factors affecting economic growth and development in the country. The results show that the variables have long memory and all except electricity consumption are non-mean reverting. The series are heterogeneous with respect to the order of integration. Using OLS regressions with fractionally integrated errors, we found that electricity consumption, oil prices, electricity prices, real interest rate and employment affect GDP per capita with only real interest rate having a negative relationship. Policy recommendations are proposed in the article.
References
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Akinlo, A. E. (2008). Energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from 11 Sub- Sahara African countries. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2391–2400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.01.008
Akinsola, M. O., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Asymmetric effect of oil price on economic growth: Panel analysis of low-income oil-importing countries. Energy Reports, 6, 1057-1066. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2020.04.023
Alaska (2004). Contaminant Program. Retrieved June 17, 2017, from http://alaska.fws.gov/fisheries/contaminants/index.htm
Al-mulali, U., & Che Sab, C. N. B. (2012). The impact of energy consumption and CO2 emission on the economic growth and financial development in the Sub-Saharan African countries. Energy 39, 180-186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.032
Amnesty International (2011). UN Confirms Massive Oil Pollution in Niger Delta. Retrieved June 19, 2017, from http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/news-item/un-confirms-massive-oilpollution-in-niger-delta
Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2009). Energy consumption and economic growth in Central America: evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model. Energy Economics, 31(2), 211–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.002
Auty, R. (1993). Sustaining development in the mineral economies: the resource curse thesis. London: Routledge.
Awe, O. O., Akinlana, D. M., Yaya, O. S., & Aromolaran, O. (2018). Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria. Agris On-Line Papers in Economics & Informatics, 10(2), 15-22. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.276109
Awe, O. O., Crandell, I., Adepoju, A. A., & Leman, S. (2015). A Time Varying Parameter State-Space Model for Analyzing Money Supply-Economic Growth Nexus. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 4(1), 73-95. Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spt:stecon:v:4:y:2015:i:1:f:4_1_4
Awe, O. O., Mudida, R., & Gil-Alaña, L. A. (2020). Comparative analysis of economic growth in Nigeria and Kenya: A fractional integration approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 1197-1205. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1845
Berndt, E., & Wood, D. (1975). Technology, Prices and The Derived Demand for Energy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 57, 259-268. https://doi.org/10.2307/1923910
Bowden, N., & Payne, J.E. (2010). Sectoral Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Real Output in the US. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 5(4), 400-408. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567240802534250
Can, M., & Gozgor, G. (2017). The impact of economic complexity on carbon emissions: evidence from France. Environmental Science Pollution Research, 24, 16364–16370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9219-7
Chen P. F., & Lee C. C. (2007). Is energy consumption per capita broken stationary? New evidence from regional-based panels. Energy Policy 35, 3526-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.12.027
Cho, S., Heo, E. & Kim, J. (2015). Causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth: comparison between developed and less-developed countries. Geosystem Engineering, 18, 284–291. https://doi.org/10.1080/12269328.2015.1053540
Corina, P., & Claudiu, C. (2012). Econometric perspective of the energy consumption and economic growth relation in European Union. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(8), 5718-5726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.06.010
Cuestas, J. C., & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2016). A nonlinear approach with long rage dependence based on Chebyshev polynomials in time. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 20, 57-74. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2014-0005
Daily Independent (2010). Shell and the N15bn Oil Spill Judgement Debt. The Daily Independent (Lagos). 19 July 2010. Archived
Dong, K., Hochman, G., Zhang, Y., Sun, R., Li, H., & Liao, H. J. E. E. (2018). CO2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: Empirical evidence across regions. Energy Economics, 75, 180-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.08.017
Ebohon, O. J. (1996). Energy, economic growth and causality in developing countries. Energy Policy, 24, 447-453. https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-4215(96)0r0027-4
Fallahi F. (2011). Causal relationship between energy consumption (EC) and GDP: a markov-switching (MS) causality. Energy, 36, 4165-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.04.027
Geweke, J., & Porter-Hudak, S. (1983). The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4(4), 221-238. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1983.tb00371.x
Ghali, K. H., & El-Sakka, M. I. T. (2004). Energy use and output growth in Canada: a multivariate cointegration analysis. Energy Economics, 26(2), 225–238. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(03)00056-2
Ghosh, S. (2010). Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach. Energy Policy, 38(6), 3008-3014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.01.040
Gil-Alana, L. A., & O. Yaya (2021). Testing fractional unit roots with nonlinear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions. Journal of Applied Statistics, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2020.1757047
Gil-Alana, L. A., Mudida, R., & Carcel, H. (2017). Shocks Affecting Electricity Prices in Kenya, A Fractional Integration Study. Energy, 124, 521-530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.092
Glasure, Y. U. (2002). Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables. Energy Economics, 24(4), 355–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(02)00036-1
Griffin, J. M. (1979). Energy Conservation in the OECD: 1980-2000. Ballinger Publishers, Cambridge, MA.
Gylfason, T. (2001). Lessons from the Dutch disease: Causes, treatment, and cures. Institute of Economic Studies Working Paper Series W01:06, 1-25
Hsu Y. C., Lee, C. C., & Lee C. C. (2008). Revisited: are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? New evidence from a panel SURADF approach. Energy Economics, 30, 2314-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.09.007
Hudson, E. A., & Jorgenson, D. W. (1974). US energy policy and economic growth, 1975-2000. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 5(2), 461-514. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003118
Kebede, E., Kagochi, J., & Jolly, C. (2010). Energy consumption and economic development in Sub-Sahara Africa. Energy Economics, 32, 532-7. Retrieved from https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:3:p:532-537
Lean, H. H., & Song, Y. (2009). Long memory in US disaggregated petroleum consumption: evidence from univariate and multivariate LM tests for fractional integration. Energy Policy, 37, 3205-3211 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.04.017
Lee, C., & Chang C. (2007). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan. Energy, 32, 2282-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.01.017
Matsui, K. et al. (1978). Economic Activity and Energy on a Stable Growth Course. The Institute of Energy Economics Research Report, 78-2. Tokyo.
Mazur, A., Phutkaradze, Z., & Phutkaradze, J. (2015). Economic Growth and Environmental Quality in the European Union Countries – Is there Evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve? International Journal of Management and Economics, 45(1), 108-126. https://doi.org/10.1515/ijme-2015-0018
Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth R. (2009). Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific island countries. Energy Policy, 37, 2318-2326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.022
Narayan P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are Shocks to energy consumption permanent or transitory? Evidence from 182 Countries. Energy Policy, 35, 333-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.027
National Planning Commission (NPC). (1997). National rolling plan (1997–1999).
NNPC (2013). NNPC Annual Statistical Bulletin. Retrieved August 31, 2020, from https://nnpcgroup.com/Public-Relations/Oil-and-Gas-Statistics/Pages/Annual-Statistics-Bulletin.aspx
Oyedepo, S. (2014). Towards achieving energy for sustainable development in Nigeria. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 34, 255–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.03.019
Oyedepo, S. (2012). On energy for sustainable development in Nigeria. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2583-2598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.02.010
Payne J. E. (2010). On biomass energy consumption and real output in the US. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 6, 47-52. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567240903160906
Radmehr, R., Henneberry, S. R., & Shayanmehr, S. (2021). Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth Nexus: A Simultaneity Spatial Modeling Analysis of EU Countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 57, 13-27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.01.006
Rafindadi, A. A., & Ozturk, I. (2017). Impacts of renewable energy consumption on the German economic growth: Evidence from combined cointegration test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 1130–1141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.093
Robinson, P. M. (1995), Log-Periodogram Regression of Time Series with Long Range Dependence. Annals of Statistics, 23(3), 1048-1072. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2242436
Robinson, P.M. (1994). Efficient tests of nonstationary hypotheses. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89, 1420-1437. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1994.10476881
Ross, M. L. (2015). What Have We Learned About the Resource Curse? Annual Review of Political Science, 18, 239-259. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359
Saleh, M. A. (2015). Value and Risk Management, [MSc. Research Module] Available at: School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society. Heriot Watt University Edinburgh, United Kingdom. [unpublished]
Saleh, M. A. et al (2017). Risk and Environmental Implications of Oil Spillage in Nigeria (Niger-Delta Region). IIARD International Journal of Geography and Environmental Management 3(2), 44-53. Retrieved from http://iiardpub.org/get/IJGEM/VOL.%203%20NO.%202%202017/RISK%20AND%20ENVIRONMENTAL.pdf
Sambo, A. S. (2009). Strategic developments in renewable energy in Nigeria. International Association of Energy Economics, 15–19.
Soava, G., Mehedintu, A., Sterpu, M., & Raduteanu, M. (2018). Impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from European Union countries. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 24, 914–932. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2018.1426
Susuki, K., & Takenaka, H. (1981). The role of investment for energy conservation: Future Japanese economic growth. Energy Economics 3(4), 233-243. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(81)90024-4
U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (2017). WILD. Retrieved June 17, 2017, from http://www.fws.gov
UNDP (2013). Niger Delta Human Development Report. p. 76. Perfect Printers Ltd, Lagos
Venables, A. J. (2016). Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has it Proven so Difficult? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(1), 161–184. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.1.161
Vidal, J. (2010). Nigeria's agony dwarfs the Gulf oil spill. The US and Europe ignore it. The Observer. Retrieved August 31, 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/may/30/oil-spills-nigeria-niger-delta-shell
Warr, B. S., & Ayres, R. U. (2010). Evidence of causality between the quantity and quality of energy consumption and economic growth. Energy, 35, 1688-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.12.017
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